My prediction earlier was from the heart instead of the head, as I probably should have stuck with the team I pegged to win the World Cup from the start of the tournament and still believe now will lift the Jules Rimet Trophy when all is said and done Sunday. Although I will be rooting for the Netherlands.
Spain from start to finish were the better team controlling possession as this collection of talent always does with Xavi, Iniesta, and Xabi Alonso dictating play through David Villa and Pedro. That was not particularly surprising.
Another aspect that was not surprising to me was the fact that Thomas Muller's one match suspension for one of the worst yellow card calls of the tournament played a major factor in the game. Piotr Trochowski is a nice player and has been a good substitute for Germany, but he does not have two physical gifts that Muller possesses - youthful exuberance and pace.
I'll be the first to admit Muller is not the most skilled player in this tournament, but with the way the Germans wanted to play during this tournament he was incredibly important. Like a faster version of the Netherlands' Dirk Kuyt, Muller's work-rate running from box to box and getting out with break-neck speed in the counter attack allowed Germany to catch opponents in just the slightest mistake if they pushed too far forward against Die Mannschaft. If you watched closely there were several times Germany wanted to pushed forward via the right-side of the pitch where Muller plays, and Trochowski simply wasn't able to get out of his deep positioning in the same capacity as Muller, which allowed Spain to get back and cover better.
But where Spain was also tactically brilliant was the way they quickly pressed Bastian Schweinsteiger and Sami Khedira every time they touched the ball in the middle of the field. It seemed like each time those two players touched the ball either Sergio Busquets or Carlos Puyol or Gerard Pique was right on top of them, which did not allow Germany to ever really settle into the game and forced a lot of easy turnovers.
I was disappointed with the way Germany sat back and allowed Spain to take the game to them all afternoon long seemingly settling into old German tactics - defend and hope for a break - instead of the style of play that had gotten them to the semifinals - defend, but then attack mercilessly when the opportunity presented itself.
The announcers said before the game Mesut Ozil looked nervous in the tunnel walking out to the game, I think that was a fair representation of how the whole team looked on the field during the game until they had to score. The Germans made uncharacteristic bad touches and sloppy passes turning the ball over cheaply time and again. There were a couple of times where the counter was there, but then a bad touch would diffuse their explosive ability. I think the biggest example I can point to is Ozil's opportunity right before the half.
Sprung on a quick ball after a sloppy turnover from the Spanish defense, Ozil was in on goal and should have gotten behind the defense, but a bad touch allowed the defense to get back. Ozil eventually would go down as he was clipped by Sergio Ramos, but the referee would not have any of it. Ozil should have scored, but he went down rather easily and lost the possession.
For one second I have to speak about the referees, and really the referees of this tournament. I had several gripes with how the referee called the game, really nothing major and stuff most fans of one team would complain about as the game progresses. I also as a referee don't believe in blaming the ref for the outcome of the game because you have 90 minutes to make an impact, and today Germany had plenty of time to find one goal, but did not do so. However, I fully believe that play was the one big decision the referee had to make throughout the course of the game, it was right in front of him he was in the proper position, and he completely missed the call, which has been the way the reffing has gone this whole tournament. That's very very disappointing.
All along I thought the first goal would also be very important because if Germany would have scored first it would have forced to Spain to come out of their patient passing machine that probes and probes and probes looking for just the right deadly ball. They would have had to press and push more numbers forward, which would have left the Espania defense more vulnerable.
That never happened though thanks to several brilliant tip-aways and saves from Iker Casillas, who more and more is showing why I have thought he's been the best goalkeeper in the world for the last three years. Casillas made a great stop on Trochowski's long range effort and a great tip off a corner that would have likely found a German head at the back post. He then made the save of the game on Trochowski's sub Toni Kroos, who took a chip from Lukas Podolski and smashed it at the face of goal only to be turned away by Casillas' instinctual reaction stop.
Puyol's goal was an absolutely sensational header giving German keeper Manuel Neuer no chance, as Puyol had a 10-yard sprinting start before he latched onto the header. What was poor on the German's part though was they never should have been burned in the air against the smaller Spanish side. As Fox Soccer Channel's Andy Gray explained on Ticket to South Africa tonight on the recap of the game, Germany played zone defending on the corner allowing Puyol to go unmarked. Puyol came from the far corner of the box and actually jumped in front of Pique as well as Khedier to get to the ball first. Had Germany simply played man marking that never would have happened, but they marked space instead of players allowing La Furia Roja's captain to score the deserved game-winner.
One last aspect I must mention about Spain is that part of the reason David Villa has been so amazing in this tournament is because when Fernando Torres has started at central forward that allows Villa to play in his more natural left-wing/hybrid forward position instead of being the guy at center forward. Villa is much better facing goal going at defenders one-v-one and looking to get behind defenders with diagonal runs, which he is able to do much more easily in the left wing role, instead of playing with his back to goal where the field is more clogged up and there is less space to make inventive runs, which is what the center forward has to do. Germany was able to blanket Villa and play physically against him for virtually the entire match keeping him invisible save for his one early opportunity in the sixth minute that was snuffed out by Neuer in net.
Pedro played very well for Spain coming in for Torres, but he was not able to play Villa as well as Villa can play Villa. Yes Torres has been bad to date in this tournament, but that's just one thing Spanish coach Vincente Del Bosque should take into account before he decides on his lineup for Sunday's final.
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