Where does the U.S. fate lie 16 hours before game-time

Question day has arrived for the United States less than 24 hours prior to the game vs. Algeria that will decide the Men’s National Team’s fate starting tomorrow morning at 10 a.m.

To date the come-back kids have looked largely pretty good with spells of utter chaos and disorganization at the back – an area of concern before the World Cup without any relief during it – as well as moments of pure genius and precision looking as fluid as any world power going forward connecting quick combination passing. And of course the U.S. has been protected in goal by one of the best keepers in the tournament in Tim Howard.

The U.S. can advance into the knockout stage either as the top team or the second-place finisher with a slew of possibilities as listed in the sidebar (LISTED BELOW). Here, however, I will break down the match.

So who is this mysterious African team that drew nil-nil with England, a great result for the U.S.?

Algeria have conceded one goal in South Africa to Slovenia on a major goalkeeping gaff by first-game starter Faouzi Chaouchi as the keeper misjudged by the bouncing oncoming shot from Robert Koren and tried to catch the ball instead of blocking it away. The ball slipped by his shoulder, essentially through his hands, and in. It wasn’t as poor as Robert Green’s mistake for England, but it was just as costly for without that goal every team in Group C would be level on two points through two matches thus far.

The defense is clearly the strength of the Algerian team behind Nadir Belhadj of Portsmouth in the English Premier League and Madjid Bougherra of Rangers in the Scottish Premier League. That tandem along with new starter in goal Rais M’Bholhj largely frustrated Wayne Rooney and company in England’s second match allowing six shots on goal in what was a very even match (Algeria 53% possession, England 47% possession).

Don’t be fooled though, this Algerian defense is not of Italian or Swiss quality or even Slovenian quality. Four times in nine games this year Algeria have given up three or more goals, and if the U.S. can score two against the big boys like Spain and Brazil (Confederation’s Cup), Czech Republic and Turkey (pre-World Cup friendlies), and Slovenia most recently, the MNT can certainly breach the Desert Foxes’ net.

What must the U.S. avoid?

A slow start, plain and simple.

Eight times in the World Cup the Red White and Blue have allowed teams to score on them inside the first 15 minutes, including both games thus far in the 2010 South Africa tournament. Six times in 10 games in qualification the U.S. allowed opposing teams to score first, and four more of those were conceded inside the first 20 minutes.

You say so what that still leaves the fast majority of the game to get a goal or two back. Not so fast. It’s easier to count how many times teams have scored more than a goal in this tournament than it is to count how many times teams have scored a goal or fewer. In 36 games or 72 opportunities, only 16 times have teams scored two or more goals – not a very good ratio. Then you also have to take into account the change in tactics coaches must implement when they go down, especially that early in a match, which often leaves a side open to the counter attack and almost assured death with a second goal.

Consider thisbefore the U.S. came from two goals down vs. Slovenia this past Friday, the U.S. had been 1-30-2 down two goals at halftime. Incredibly the U.S. clearly deserved to double their win total, but again the odds just aren’t in their favor to pull of those types of cardiac come-backs.

Where are the U.S. trouble spots?

The Achilles heel has been the heart of the defense.

You hate to fault Oguchi Onyewu’s performance to date because he has had some good moments and he is coming off a very lengthy lay-off due to a knee-tendon tear, but he has been one of the most visible detriments on all three goals the U.S. have allowed thus far.

On Steven Gerrard’s goal for England Onyewu was not the guiltiest party, that would belong to either Jay DeMerit (Onyewu’s partner in the center of defense), who was held off by Emile Heskey on the pass through, and Ricardo Clark, who fell asleep at the wheel in terms of marking Gerrard as he slipped away on the run. But Onyewu too was in the middle of the defense there, and his late challenge was too late as Gerrard had already slotted the ball home.

In the Slovenia match, Onyewu was caught in no-man’s land on Valter Birsa’s terrific strike as the Slovenian slipped into the middle from 30-yards out had time to take a touch, turn, and fire the ball home. In fact Onyewu provide a better screen on Howard than he did a defensive hindrance as Howard said afterward he never saw the ball.

Then on the counter, Slovenia busted right down the middle of the field as Zlatan Ljubijankic lost Onyewu, who left his mark to make a challenge on the passer, but again failed as Ljubijankic received the ball and scored.

Disorganization has clearly been a key as Bob Bradley has had three different holding midfielders thus far electing to go with the man who was so good in the Confederations Cup last summer in the first match with England – Clark – then switching to the man who looked best in the pre-World Cup friendlies in the first half of the Slovenia match – Jose Torres – before then subbing him off at halftime for Maurice Edu – another player that came on late in the picture after a good second half at Rangers in Scottland.

Regardless the U.S. will have to get that large problem area under control with the dangerous Karim Ziani lurking in the MIDDLE of the Algerian midfield as well as defender Antar Yahia, a good player on restarts, and Karim Matmour – a midfielder/forward hybrid player.
How will U.S. fans know if the MNT are off to a good start?

Urgency of play.

There was a lack of intensity, composure on the ball, good decision-making, and flowing rhythm until late in the first half of the U.S.’s match with Slovenia. It cost them a win.

Too often players like Michael Bradley, Steve Cherundolo, Onyewu, and others simply hit long balls up the pitch hoping to find Landon Donovan, Robbie Findley, Jozy Altidore or Clint Dempsey. If we were talking about U-14 soccer where the kick-and-run game works when you have the fastest player on the field, I’d say go for it if you’re just looking to win. But international defenders are too classy for that wasteful-type of passing, and too often the U.S. lost possession on those types of passes.

Now Koman Coulibaly, the Mali referee, clearly burned the U.S. with one of the worst reffing decisions in World Cup play, but had they displayed the type of urgency to score goals all game instead of the second half we would not have been talking about Coulibaly’s terrible decision.
The second half was much better as the U.S. looked to pass to feet, control possession, make measured crosses, and look to connect to multiple players. It worked with two good goals, but they cannot wait until a goal down to turn on the switch.

Too much is riding on this game. The result needs to be a win for the U.S. and it should be a win against a team that is 16 places behind in the FIFA World Rankings.

(SIDE BAR) Breaking down where the U.S. stand and what they must do to move on.

Currently the Red White and Blue sit behind Slovenia (4 points) in second place with two points technically ahead of England, who also have two points, because of tiebreakers. Both England and the U.S. have two draws in two matches, so they are even on points and goal differential – the first two tiebreakers. However, because the U.S. scored two goals in the match with Slovenia and England scored none vs. Algeria, our MNT are ahead on goals scored three to one – the third tiebreaker.

Very simply if the U.S. win they are through no matter the result of the Group C match. With a hypothetical win they could also win the group or finish second. They would automatically finish in second if Slovenia won. They would win the group if: A. Slovenia and England tied and the U.S. had scored more goals than Slovenia (currently the two level on goals) or B. if England won and the U.S. held their current goal-scoring advantage over the Brits or C. a coin flip if they end level goals scored by either scenarios A or B.

If they tie they can also advance, but it gets tricky. The simplest route would be a loss by England. However, a draw in the other Group C match with the stipulation that England would not score enough goals to break the MNT’s current two-goal leg up would also send the U.S. through or they could win a coin flip over England if the two teams were level on goals scored.

If they lose they are done, end of story. Algeria would go ahead on points, and the result of the other match would not matter.